Company Coverage
Carabao Group (CBG TB): Domestic Growth Remains Strong; International Sales Rebound
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt57.00
Bt66.00
15.79%
Analyst
Highlights
- We remain positive on CBG with 3Q26 earnings expected to return to yoy growth and increase qoq.
- 3Q26 top-line growth is expected to be supported by continued growth in domestic sales, which should increase both yoy and qoq.
- International sales are also expected to gradually recover, led by the Myanmar market, and should offset the absence of Cambodia sales, supporting an international sales return to yoy growth in 4Q26.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt66.00.
Analysis
- The company held an analyst meeting following its 2Q26 results, with an overall positive tone.
- Domestic sales to continue growing, with distribution sales remaining the key growth driver. Management remains confident in 3Q26’s top-line
growth, driven by strong domestic sales. Domestic energy drink sales are expected to grow 8-10% yoy, while distribution sales are expected to increase 20-25% yoy, with continued growth in LOVEZA OEM sales.
- OEM sales are expected to grow in 2H26, driven by increasing orders from LOVEZA. LOVEZA OEM sales are gaining positive momentum, with volumes expected to increase from around 5m cans in 2Q26 to 15m cans in 3Q26 and 25m cans in 4Q26. Management also sees potential to expand OEM distribution into the traditional trade channel, providing an additional growth opportunity.
- International sales recovery to offset the absence of Cambodia sales. International sales are expected to remain flat in 3Q26 due to the absence of Cambodia sales. However, other markets, especially Myanmar and Vietnam, are expected to grow strongly by around 70-80% yoy and 10% yoy, respectively. CBG has no issues with import licences in Myanmar and has sufficient licences to cover shipments through 4Q26. Therefore, with a normalised Cambodia sales base in 4Q26, we expect international sales to return to yoy growth.
Highlights
- We remain positive on CBG with 3Q26 earnings expected to return to yoy growth and increase qoq.
- 3Q26 top-line growth is expected to be supported by continued growth in domestic sales, which should increase both yoy and qoq.
- International sales are also expected to gradually recover, led by the Myanmar market, and should offset the absence of Cambodia sales, supporting an international sales return to yoy growth in 4Q26.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt66.00.
Analysis
- The company held an analyst meeting following its 2Q26 results, with an overall positive tone.
- Domestic sales to continue growing, with distribution sales remaining the key growth driver. Management remains confident in 3Q26’s top-line
growth, driven by strong domestic sales. Domestic energy drink sales are expected to grow 8-10% yoy, while distribution sales are expected to increase 20-25% yoy, with continued growth in LOVEZA OEM sales.
- OEM sales are expected to grow in 2H26, driven by increasing orders from LOVEZA. LOVEZA OEM sales are gaining positive momentum, with volumes expected to increase from around 5m cans in 2Q26 to 15m cans in 3Q26 and 25m cans in 4Q26. Management also sees potential to expand OEM distribution into the traditional trade channel, providing an additional growth opportunity.
- International sales recovery to offset the absence of Cambodia sales. International sales are expected to remain flat in 3Q26 due to the absence of Cambodia sales. However, other markets, especially Myanmar and Vietnam, are expected to grow strongly by around 70-80% yoy and 10% yoy, respectively. CBG has no issues with import licences in Myanmar and has sufficient licences to cover shipments through 4Q26. Therefore, with a normalised Cambodia sales base in 4Q26, we expect international sales to return to yoy growth.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt57.00
Bt66.00
15.79%
Analyst
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