Analyst
Analyst
Exports And Imports Both Accelerate Against A Higher Base
- China’s export growth accelerated to 36.3% yoy in September (+11.3ppt mom), the fastest pace since Feb 26 and well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.7% yoy, led by China’s export growth to ASEAN and the EU.
- Import growth rose to 31.0% yoy (+2.8ppt mom), above consensus’ 25.0% yoy, which had expected a slowdown against a higher base. Key commodity imports turned more supportive, while integrated circuits import growth remained elevated at 74.7% yoy. The trade surplus widened to US$133.5b, above consensus’ US$117.8b.
- Both export and import growth accelerated despite a higher yoy base, indicating that the strength reflects genuine tech-related demand and continued trade diversification.
What’s New
- China’s export growth accelerated to 36.3% yoy in September from 25.0% yoy in August (+11.3ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.7% yoy. The pickup was broad-based, with four of five key markets recording faster growth. China’s export growth to ASEAN strengthened to 52.3% yoy (+22.1ppt mom), overtaking Hong Kong as the fastest-growing key market. China’s export growth to the EU rose to 25.3% yoy (+18.7ppt mom). China’s export growth to the US picked up to 39.6% yoy (+5.2ppt mom), largely reflecting a low base in Sep 25 (-27.0% yoy), while the late-September tariff truce extension may lend further support ahead. China’s export growth to Japan rose to 15.8% yoy (+7.6ppt mom). Hong Kong was the only key market to ease, with export growth moderating to 51.0% yoy (-12.7ppt mom), though it remained elevated given its role as a transit hub.
- China’s import growth came in at 31.0% yoy in September (+2.8ppt mom), beating Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.0% yoy. Consensus had expected a slowdown as the base turned less favourable, since Sep 25 import growth of 7.4% yoy was the strongest reading of the year. Instead, key commodities turned more supportive after weighing on August’s data. China’s import growth of coal strengthened to 52.5% yoy (+19.1ppt mom), helped by a low base in Sep 25 (-23.9% yoy), while copper ore picked up to 33.4% yoy (+5.3ppt mom). China’s import growth of crude oil returned to positive territory at 1.6% yoy (+6.2ppt mom) for the first time since May. Iron ore remained the only soft spot at -6.7% yoy (+1.4ppt mom), weighed by a high base in Sep 25 (17.5% yoy). The improvement is consistent with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in Aug 26.
- Tech-related categories led key trade products again. China’s hi-tech products export growth accelerated to 63.6% yoy (+6.7ppt mom), and mechanical and electrical products export growth strengthened to 43.7% yoy (+10.9ppt mom). China’s import growth of integrated circuits eased to 74.7% yoy (-8.9ppt mom), reflecting a higher base in Sep 25 rather than softer demand, as import value reached a fresh high. China’s motor vehicle export growth rebounded to 54.2% yoy (+18.5ppt mom), while agricultural products import growth was broadly unchanged at 5.5% yoy (+0.1ppt mom).
- The trade surplus widened to US$133.5b from August’s US$119.1b, above consensus’ US$117.8b. Both export and import growth accelerated despite a higher yoy base, indicating that the strength reflects genuine tech-related demand and continued trade diversification rather than favourable comparisons. Looking ahead, sustained momentum hinges on tech-related demand holding up, particularly as part of the recent strength reflects higher chip prices rather than volumes.
Exports And Imports Both Accelerate Against A Higher Base
- China’s export growth accelerated to 36.3% yoy in September (+11.3ppt mom), the fastest pace since Feb 26 and well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.7% yoy, led by China’s export growth to ASEAN and the EU.
- Import growth rose to 31.0% yoy (+2.8ppt mom), above consensus’ 25.0% yoy, which had expected a slowdown against a higher base. Key commodity imports turned more supportive, while integrated circuits import growth remained elevated at 74.7% yoy. The trade surplus widened to US$133.5b, above consensus’ US$117.8b.
- Both export and import growth accelerated despite a higher yoy base, indicating that the strength reflects genuine tech-related demand and continued trade diversification.
What’s New
- China’s export growth accelerated to 36.3% yoy in September from 25.0% yoy in August (+11.3ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.7% yoy. The pickup was broad-based, with four of five key markets recording faster growth. China’s export growth to ASEAN strengthened to 52.3% yoy (+22.1ppt mom), overtaking Hong Kong as the fastest-growing key market. China’s export growth to the EU rose to 25.3% yoy (+18.7ppt mom). China’s export growth to the US picked up to 39.6% yoy (+5.2ppt mom), largely reflecting a low base in Sep 25 (-27.0% yoy), while the late-September tariff truce extension may lend further support ahead. China’s export growth to Japan rose to 15.8% yoy (+7.6ppt mom). Hong Kong was the only key market to ease, with export growth moderating to 51.0% yoy (-12.7ppt mom), though it remained elevated given its role as a transit hub.
- China’s import growth came in at 31.0% yoy in September (+2.8ppt mom), beating Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 25.0% yoy. Consensus had expected a slowdown as the base turned less favourable, since Sep 25 import growth of 7.4% yoy was the strongest reading of the year. Instead, key commodities turned more supportive after weighing on August’s data. China’s import growth of coal strengthened to 52.5% yoy (+19.1ppt mom), helped by a low base in Sep 25 (-23.9% yoy), while copper ore picked up to 33.4% yoy (+5.3ppt mom). China’s import growth of crude oil returned to positive territory at 1.6% yoy (+6.2ppt mom) for the first time since May. Iron ore remained the only soft spot at -6.7% yoy (+1.4ppt mom), weighed by a high base in Sep 25 (17.5% yoy). The improvement is consistent with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in Aug 26.
- Tech-related categories led key trade products again. China’s hi-tech products export growth accelerated to 63.6% yoy (+6.7ppt mom), and mechanical and electrical products export growth strengthened to 43.7% yoy (+10.9ppt mom). China’s import growth of integrated circuits eased to 74.7% yoy (-8.9ppt mom), reflecting a higher base in Sep 25 rather than softer demand, as import value reached a fresh high. China’s motor vehicle export growth rebounded to 54.2% yoy (+18.5ppt mom), while agricultural products import growth was broadly unchanged at 5.5% yoy (+0.1ppt mom).
- The trade surplus widened to US$133.5b from August’s US$119.1b, above consensus’ US$117.8b. Both export and import growth accelerated despite a higher yoy base, indicating that the strength reflects genuine tech-related demand and continued trade diversification rather than favourable comparisons. Looking ahead, sustained momentum hinges on tech-related demand holding up, particularly as part of the recent strength reflects higher chip prices rather than volumes.
Analyst
Analyst
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