Analyst
Analyst
Krit Tanarattananon
krit@uobkh.co.thAnalyst
Thailand Research Team
research@uobkh.co.thAnalyst
Natthida Chuaysong
Highlights
- Our portfolio's returns underperformed the market in Sep 26 (Our portfolio: 3.6% vs SET Index: -2.3%).
- The outperforming stocks were: a) BJC (+12.9%), b) BH (+0.8%), and c) BDMS (+2.0%). The underperforming stocks were: a) CPN (-8.6%), b) CPN (-6.1%), and c) CPALL (-8.1%).
- For Oct 26, the Thai equity market may face near-term challenges from high US Treasury yields, lower crude oil prices, and flooding risks. However, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by positive EPS momentum, low financing costs, and negative real yields, which should attract capital into equities.
- Oct 26 Alpha Picks: BDMS, BH, BJC, CPN, ITC, KTC, PLANB, RATCH, THAI, TOP and TRUE.
What’s New
- Portfolio underperformed in Sep 26. Our portfolio underperformed the market in Sep 26 (-3.6% vs SET Index: -2.3%). The outperforming stocks were: a) BJC (+12.9%), b) BH (+0.8%), and c) BDMS (-2.0%). The underperforming stocks were: a) MTC (-12.0%), b) CPN (-8.6%), and c) CPALL (-8.1%).
- Thai equities moved down in September. The Thai equities market moved down in September, as the market was primarily pressured by the continued rise in US Treasury yields, which are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. This could trigger short-term capital rotation from equities into US Treasuries. In addition, concerns over flooding have increased, as the situation could weigh on economic conditions. The outperforming sectors were: a) petrochemical (+8.6%), b) electronics (+3.9%), and c) home improvement (+0.2%). The underperforming sectors were: a) finance (-7.8%), b) transportation (-5.2%), and c) property (-5.0%)
- More pressure in the short term. The Thai equity market may face more challenges in October primarily due to: a) persistently high US Treasury yields, which could widen the US-Thai yield gap, trigger capital outflows, and weaken the baht; b) easing crude oil prices amid higher supply, potentially pressuring upstream energy stocks; and c) economic downside risks from flooding. However, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by positive EPS momentum, low domestic financing costs, and negative real treasury yields, which should encourage capital inflows into equities.
- Focus on the companies that expect to have an impressive earnings outlook in 2H26. We continue to recommend increasing exposure to stocks that are expected to see an impressive earnings outlook in 2H26.
Highlights
- Our portfolio's returns underperformed the market in Sep 26 (Our portfolio: 3.6% vs SET Index: -2.3%).
- The outperforming stocks were: a) BJC (+12.9%), b) BH (+0.8%), and c) BDMS (+2.0%). The underperforming stocks were: a) CPN (-8.6%), b) CPN (-6.1%), and c) CPALL (-8.1%).
- For Oct 26, the Thai equity market may face near-term challenges from high US Treasury yields, lower crude oil prices, and flooding risks. However, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by positive EPS momentum, low financing costs, and negative real yields, which should attract capital into equities.
- Oct 26 Alpha Picks: BDMS, BH, BJC, CPN, ITC, KTC, PLANB, RATCH, THAI, TOP and TRUE.
What’s New
- Portfolio underperformed in Sep 26. Our portfolio underperformed the market in Sep 26 (-3.6% vs SET Index: -2.3%). The outperforming stocks were: a) BJC (+12.9%), b) BH (+0.8%), and c) BDMS (-2.0%). The underperforming stocks were: a) MTC (-12.0%), b) CPN (-8.6%), and c) CPALL (-8.1%).
- Thai equities moved down in September. The Thai equities market moved down in September, as the market was primarily pressured by the continued rise in US Treasury yields, which are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. This could trigger short-term capital rotation from equities into US Treasuries. In addition, concerns over flooding have increased, as the situation could weigh on economic conditions. The outperforming sectors were: a) petrochemical (+8.6%), b) electronics (+3.9%), and c) home improvement (+0.2%). The underperforming sectors were: a) finance (-7.8%), b) transportation (-5.2%), and c) property (-5.0%)
- More pressure in the short term. The Thai equity market may face more challenges in October primarily due to: a) persistently high US Treasury yields, which could widen the US-Thai yield gap, trigger capital outflows, and weaken the baht; b) easing crude oil prices amid higher supply, potentially pressuring upstream energy stocks; and c) economic downside risks from flooding. However, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by positive EPS momentum, low domestic financing costs, and negative real treasury yields, which should encourage capital inflows into equities.
- Focus on the companies that expect to have an impressive earnings outlook in 2H26. We continue to recommend increasing exposure to stocks that are expected to see an impressive earnings outlook in 2H26.
Analyst
Analyst
Krit Tanarattananon
krit@uobkh.co.thAnalyst
Thailand Research Team
research@uobkh.co.thAnalyst
Natthida Chuaysong
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
